``I had by this time calculated that every one-megaton atmospheric test would cost ten thousand human lives...'' (page 207)Earlier in the book, Sakharov explains his calculations in greater detail.
The article which Sakharov refers to is quite readable and is available at http://www.princeton.edu/~globsec/publications/pdf/1_3-4Sakharov.pdf . In the article he makes the following argument:
``To return to this chapter's theme, I was becoming increasingly concerned during this period with the biological consequences of nuclear testing. Working on the article, ''Radioactive Carbon from Nuclear Explosions and Nonthreshold Biological Effects"" (written in 1957 and published the following year in the Soviet journal Atomic Energy), did much to develop my ideas on the moral issues involved in nuclear testing; I will try, therefore, to recall just how I came to write it...In my article, I dealt with the fact mentioned earlier in this chapter, that ``the number of victimes of additioanl radiation is determined by nonthreshold biological effects.'' Such effects, including carcinogenesis and genetic change, which in theory might occur at even the very lowest radiation levels, could lead to many deaths and cases of disease as huge poipulations--ver the course of many generations--are exposed to them. ``The simplest nonthreshold effect,'' I wrote,``is the influence on heredity...A single ionizationa event is sufficient to cause irreversible change--a mutation--in a gene...The probability of damage is in direct proportion to the radiation dose.'' I estimated that the probability of hereditary disease increases with radiation at the rate of 1/10000 per roentgen. I posited that cancer and damage to the body's immune system (resulting in premature death) may also be due to nonthreshold effects. An estimate for the combined impact of damage to the immune system and the cancer-promoting effect of radiation was calculated based on data reflecting an average life span reduction of five years for X-ray rechnicians and radiologists whose total lifetime exposure to radiation probably does not exceed 1,000 roentgens. I also suggested that a global increase in mutations of bacteria and viruses (irrespective of the cause of the mutations) might have an important factor in the spread of such diseases as diptheria in the ninteenth century, or the influenze epidemic, and that low-level radiation might further increase the rate of mutations. I therefore estimated the total radiation impact to be equivalent to at least 3/10000 per roentgen. Bearing in mind that an average human lifetime is 20,000 days, each roentgen of gloval radiation will reduce this average lifetime by one week! My overall estimate of the number of human victims of a one-megaton detonation was 10,000*..." (page 200-1)
*[Frank von Hippel of Princeton University has used recent UN surveys of population exposures to atmosphric fallout and of the health effects of ionizing radiation to obtain an estimate of 1,000 to 25,000 cancers and genetic disorder per megaton, which is consistent with Sakharov's earlier estimate.]
http://www.bullatomsci.org/issues/nukenotes/nd98nukenote.html
| Atmospheric | Underground | Total | |
| United States | 141.0 | 38.0 | 179.0 |
| Soviet Union | 247.0 | 38.0 | 285.0 |
| United Kingdom | 8.0 | 0.9 | 8.9 |
| France | 10.0 | 4.0 | 14.0 |
| China | 21.9 | 1.5 | 23.4 |
| India | - | 0.014-0.017 | 0.014-.017 |
| Pakistan | - | 0.014-0.017 | 0.014-.017 |
| Total | 427.9 | 82.428-.434 | 510.328-.334 |
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http://www.bullatomsci.org/issues/nukenotes/nd98nukenote.html
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November/December
1998
NRDC
Nuclear Notebook
Vol. 54, No.6 Known Nuclear Tests Worldwide, 1945-98 Since the last update of "Known Nuclear Tests Worldwide" (see May/June 1996 "Nuclear Notebook"), several tests have occurred and additional information has become available about several nations' nuclear programs. From 1945–98 we list 2,051 tests by seven nations, with the United States and Soviet Union accounting for 85 percent. Almost 26 percent of the tests (528) were conducted in the atmosphere. In one of the tables below ("Known Nuclear Tests Worldwide"), we present what we believe to be a complete list of all nuclear tests by the five declared nuclear weapon states (as recognized by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) and India and Pakistan. Another table ("Indian and Pakistani Tests: Facts and Figures") presents some preliminary information about the Indian and Pakistani tests. If we use the definition of a test adopted by the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia (a single explosion, or two or more explosions fired within 0.1 second within an area with a diameter of two kilometers), then the number of Indian tests in May 1998 was three and the number of Pakistani tests was two. As we will discuss below, the precise number of devices the Indians and Pakistanis may have used and the precise number that were detonated is unclear. More information is needed to accurately determine what transpired. Questions about Indian tests. India first tested a device on May 18, 1974. Advertised as a "Peaceful Nuclear Explosion" it obviously had military application and India may have produced a small stockpile based on a basic fission design. The test, code named "Smiling Buddha," was carried out in a 107-meter deep shaft at the Pokharan test site in the Rajasthan desert in western India, nine kilometers north-northwest of the village of Khetolai (an especially useful article by Vipin Gupta and Frank Pabian in Science & Global Security (1996, volume 6, no. 2) locates the site). Initially the Bhabha Atomic Research Center claimed the explosive yield of the test was 12 kilotons. Later they reduced their estimate to eight kilotons. The magnitude of the seismic waves from the 1974 test, when combined with its announced depth and the formation of a subsidence crater at the surface, strongly suggested that the actual yield was less than five kilotons. At least one reputable Indian journalistic account placed the yield as low as two kilotons. With regard to the 1998 tests, Indian officials claimed to have detonated three different devices on May 11: a "thermonuclear device" with a yield of 43 kilotons (code-named Shakti 1), a fission device with a yield of 12 kilotons (Shakti 2), and a low-yield device (Shakti 3) on the order of 200 tons (0.2 kilotons). According to Indian scientists, the blasts were set off simultaneously in three separate shafts. The two larger devices were in shafts one kilometer apart in an east-west direction, some three kilometers southwest of the 1974 test. The sub-kiloton device was in a shaft 2.2 kilometers away. (We have relied on three important articles analyzing the tests, one in the May 1998 issue of Arms Control Today, a second in the September 1998 issue of Seismological Research Letters, and a third in the September 25, 1998 issue of Science.) If these devices actually produced the yields claimed by Indian weapon scientists, we would expect to observe a seismic signal corresponding to 55 kilotons, or magnitude 5.76 on the Richter scale. Sixty-two seismic stations reporting to the prototype International Data Center recorded the seismic signal, and the average magnitude was calculated as 5.0, with some estimates as low as 4.7. In well understood regions where tests have taken place, seismologists have learned that a 5.0 magnitude in a stable region would indicate a probable yield of 12 kilotons, with the range possibly as low as five kilotons and as high as 25 kilotons. A mid-point of 12 kilotons is less than one-quarter of what Indian weapon scientists claimed. Of major significance is the Indian claim that it set off a "thermonuclear" device. Some experts initially suggested that this might mean India was "boosting" fission bombs by using tritium, a hydrogen isotope. Using a very loose definition, a "boosted" fission device could qualify as "thermonuclear." Indian scientists tried to dispel that interpretation at a press conference, where they correctly defined a hydrogen bomb as one with two stages, in which a fission primary sets off a hydrogen-fueled secondary; they claimed that was what they had tested. When challenged that a 43-kiloton "thermonuclear" bomb was too small to qualify, they stated that they reduced the yield because the village of Khetolai was only five kilometers away. (It was later reported that more than 40 percent of the structures in the village had sustained some damage.) The first successful tests of a modern hydrogen bomb by each of the five declared powers had yields of 1.6 megatons to over 10 megatons. All were detonated in the atmosphere in the 1950s and 1960s, although the United States and Soviet Union both conducted multi-megaton underground tests. It is technically feasible to scale back or "defuel" the second stage of a high-yield hydrogen bomb to perhaps 10–20 kilotons, but it is a sophisticated procedure and not something likely to be attempted on a first (and possibly last) thermonuclear test. It is also possible to design two-stage thermonuclear weapons with very low-yield secondaries that would correspond to the observed yield of the May 11 test. But this potential explanation is vitiated by the fact that the observed yield corresponds rather well with India's announced yield of 12 kilotons for a "fission device" involved in the test. The simplest explanation of the available evidence suggests that either a thermonuclear second stage, or perhaps the entire thermonuclear device, failed to explode. Several explanations are possible, however, and without more information it is impossible to conclude which is correct. India claimed that it conducted two additional tests on May 13, announcing the yields as 0.2 kilotons (200 tons) and 0.6 kilotons (600 tons). Although these tests are small by nuclear standards, they should have registered on some of the seismometers in the region, but they did not. The nearest station that reports its data publicly is in Nilore, Pakistan, 750 kilometers away from the Indian test site. Based on the recorded signal-to-noise ratio for the earlier May 11 test, the limit of detection capability at Nilore for an explosion at Pokharan is calculated to be 10–15 tons for normally "coupled" explosions in most geologic media, and perhaps 100–150 tons for explosions in very porous (and dry) media, such as the "sand dunes" mentioned by the Indian press accounts of the May 13 event. Even assuming the latter "partial decoupling" scenario, the claimed yield of 600–800 tons for this event should have produced signals detectable at Nilore. The absence of any seismic record for this test suggests that the actual yields were either far lower than planned, or that the announced yields were intended to confuse and mislead foreign observers as to the actual purpose of the tests, which may have been deliberately kept low to calibrate and validate computer models of the very early stages of nuclear device performance. As in the case of the May 11 tests, without further information from Indian officials, it is difficult to say with any degree of certainty what purposes were served by these explosions, or whether one or both occurred at all. Questions about the Pakistani tests. In response to the Indian tests, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced that five devices had been exploded on May 28. These explosions took place in Baluchistan very near the Afghanistan border, apparently in a horizontal tunnel. A sixth detonation was announced on May 30, conducted some 100 kilometers to the southwest according to seismic analysis, apparently in a vertical shaft. Pakistani officials, like their Indian counterparts, seem to have exaggerated the number and size of the explosions, announcing the first day's yield as 40–45 kilotons (including one test of 30–35 kilotons) and a yield of 15–18 kilotons for the sole test on May 30. Analysis of the seismic data does not support these claims. The average magnitude reported by the 65 stations recording the event on May 28 was 4.9, indicating an explosive yield in the 6–13 kiloton range. Fifty-one stations recorded the event on May 30, with an average magnitude of 4.3, indicating an explosion in the 2–8 kiloton range. As in the Indian case, much more information is needed to determine exactly how many devices were used, how many went off, and the nature of their designs. Indian and Pakistani tests: facts and figures
Local time in India is five-and-one-half hours later than gmt; in Pakistan, local time is five hours later than gmt. *The Indian government announced that three nuclear devices were detonated simultaneously in three shafts, two of which were a kilometer apart; the third was 2.2 kilometers away. We count these as two tests. **Seismic records do not discriminate the explosions of two devices (announced by Indian scientists as being 0.2 and 0.6 kilotons), one or both of which may not have detonated. ***Pakistani officials announced that five nuclear devices were tested. Seismic records do not discriminate these and it is possible that only one device was detonated. Last Nuclear Test
Known Nuclear Tests Worldwide, 1945-98
A = atmospheric U = underground *Includes one Indian test in 1974 **See "Indian and Pakistani Tests: Facts and Figures" ***All U.K. underground tests were conducted in the United
States
Total nuclear test megatonnage
Tests by location
Nuclear Notebook is prepared by Robert S. Norris and William M. Arkin of the Natural Resources Defense Council. Inquiries should be directed to nrdc, 1200 New York Avenue, N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C., 20005; 202-289-6868. |
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http://www.fas.org/sgp/news/1999/02/faleo.html
Congressional Record: May 12, 1999 (House)
Page H3063-H3065
ENSURING PROPER COMPENSATION FOR THE NUCLEAR CLAIMS, RELOCATION AND RESETTLEMENT COSTS OF THE PEOPLE OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS The SPEAKER pro tempore. Under a previous order of the House, the gentleman from American Samoa (Mr. Faleomavaega) is recognized for 5 minutes. Mr. FALEOMAVAEGA. Mr. Speaker, yesterday, the House Committee on Resources held a hearing on a subject that I feel is critically important, and I wanted to take this opportunity to share it with our colleagues and to our Nation. Mr. Speaker, I deeply commend the gentleman from Alaska (Mr. Young), the House Committee on Resources chairman, and the gentleman from California (Mr. George Miller), the committee's ranking Democrat for convening a hearing to review the long-term effects of America's nuclear testing program on our close friends and long time allies, the good people of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Mr. Speaker, our great Nation owes an immense debt to the Marshallese people for their tremendous sacrifices that directly contributed to and continues to contribute to our Nation's nuclear deterrent and ballistic missile defense capability. Mr. Speaker, the United States in the 1950s detonated 67 nuclear bombs in the homeland of the Marshallese people, directly facilitating development of America's nuclear arsenal while poisoning the environment and the people in the Marshall Islands. Today the Marshallese people continue to contribute to America's security by providing U.S. testing facilities at Kwajalein Atoll. This atoll, Mr. Speaker, happens to be the largest atoll in the world, for development of our Nation's ballistic missile defense against rogue states possessing weapons of mass destruction. I want to share a little bit of data with my colleagues, Mr. Speaker. The total amount of TNT that was exploded [[Page H3064]] at the Nevada nuclear test site was about 1.1 megatons. Now, the amount of TNT that we exploded in the Marshall Islands was 93 megatons. If I could give another example, Mr. Speaker, the hydrogen bomb that was dropped in the Marshall Islands in 1954 was 15 megatons, which is about 1,000 times more powerful than the two bombs that we exploded at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, in World War II. Mr. Speaker, the actions of the United States Government have caused the people of the Republic of the Marshall Islands immense harm, which continues to this day. With some 67 underwater surface and atmospheric tests of atomic and thermonuclear weapons tested in the Marshalls we have rendered uninhabitable, due to nuclear radiation, much of these people's homelands. We have disrupted their lives by removing them from their homelands and in some cases they have yet to return out of fear of radiation contamination should they return. On top of that, numerous Marshallese have suffered from cancers, leukemia and other life-threatening diseases directly connected to nuclear radiation poisoning. Mr. Speaker, because of the recent declassification by the Department of Energy of previously classified documents, we now know that our government has not always been candid and forthright with the people of the Marshall Islands. Because of what some would consider callous disregard and perhaps duplicity for the well-being of the residents of the Marshall Islands, they no longer trust our government to do the right thing. After a preliminary review of the facts, Mr. Speaker, I submit I can understand why our Marshallese friends feel this way. Mr. Speaker, I regret to report that this whole process has taken too long and has been woefully underfunded. In this time of expected U.S. budget surpluses from which the House of Representatives last week ad hoc allocated some $12.9 billion for Kosovo and defense concerns, Mr. Speaker, we really have no excuse for not addressing completely these serious problems which our great Nation has caused for the good people of the Marshall Islands. Mr. Speaker, I would urge our colleagues to support full and timely compensation for the nuclear-related injuries sustained by the Marshallese people when this matter comes before us. This is the very least we can do in recognition and repayment of the sacrifices made by the people of the Marshall Islands that have ensured that the United States remains strong, remains free and remains protected. Mr. Speaker, I include the following for the Record: U.S. NUCLEAR TESTS IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Test No. Date Site Type Yield (kt.) Operation Test -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 6/30/46 Bikini................... Airdrop.................. 21.00 CROSSROADS............... ABLE 2 7/24/46 Bikini................... Undrwtr.................. 21.00 CROSSROADS............... BAKER 3 4/14/48 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 37.00 SANDSTONE................ XRAY 4 4/30/48 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 49.00 SANDSTONE................ YOKE 5 5/14/48 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 18.00 SANDSTONE................ ZEBRA 6 4/7/51 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 81.00 GREENHOUSE............... DOG 7 4/20/51 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 47.00 GREENHOUSE............... EASY 8 5/8/51 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 225.00 GREENHOUSE............... GEORGE 9 5/24/51 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 45.50 GREENHOUSE............... ITEM 10 10/31/52 Enewetak................. Surface.................. 10,400.00 IVY...................... MIKE 11 11/15/52 Enewetak................. Air Drop................. 500.00 IVY...................... KING 12 2/28/54 Bikini................... Surface.................. 15,000.00 CASTLE................... BRAVO 13 3/26/54 Bikini................... Barge.................... 11,000.00 CASTLE................... ROMEO 14 4/6/54 Bikini................... Surface.................. 110.00 CASTLE................... KOON 15 4/25/54 Bikini................... Barge.................... 6,900.00 CASTLE................... UNION 16 5/4/54 Bikini................... Barge.................... 13,500.00 CASTLE................... YANKEE 17 5/13/54 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 1,690.00 CASTLE................... NECTAR 18 5/2/56 Bikini................... Air Drop................. 3,800.00 REDWING.................. CHEROKE 19 5/4/56 Enewetak................. Surface.................. 40.00 REDWING.................. LACROSSE 20 5/27/56 Bikini................... Surface.................. 3,500.00 REDWING.................. ZUNI 21 5/27/56 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 0.19 REDWING.................. YUMA 22 5/30/56 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 14.90 REDWING.................. ERIE 23 6/6/56 Enewetak................. Surface.................. 13.70 REDWING.................. SEMINOLE 24 6/11/56 Bikini................... Barge.................... 365.00 REDWING.................. FLATHEAD 25 6/11/56 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 8.00 REDWING.................. BLACKFOOT 26 6/13/56 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 1.49 REDWING.................. KICKPOO 27 6/16/56 Enewetak................. Air Drop................. 1.70 REDWING.................. OSAGE 28 6/21/56 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 15.20 REDWING.................. INCA 29 6/25/56 Bikini................... Barge.................... 1,100.00 REDWING.................. DAKOTA 30 7/2/56 Enewetak................. Tower.................... 360.00 REDWING.................. MOHAWK 31 7/8/56 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 1,850.00 REDWING.................. APACHE 32 7/10/56 Bikini................... Barge.................... 4,500.00 REDWING.................. NAVAJO 33 7/20/56 Bikini................... Barge.................... 5,000.00 REDWING.................. TEWA 34 7/21/56 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 250.00 REDWING.................. HURON 35 4/28/58 Nr Enewetak.............. Balloon.................. 1.70 HARDTACK I............... YUCCA 36 5/5/58 Enewetak................. Surface.................. 18.00 HARDTACK I............... CACTUS 37 5/11/58 Bikini................... Barge.................... 1,360.00 HARDTACK I............... FIR 38 5/11/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 81.00 HARDTACK I............... BUTTERNUT 39 5/12/58 Enewetak................. Surface.................. 1,370.00 HARDTACK I............... KOA 40 5/16/58 Enewetak................. Undrwtr.................. 9.00 HARDTACK I............... WAHOO 41 5/20/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 5.90 HARDTACK I............... HOLLY 42 5/21/58 Bikini................... Barge.................... 25.10 HARDTACK I............... NUTMEG 43 5/26/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 330.00 HARDTACK I............... YELLOWWD 44 5/26/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 57.00 HARDTACK I............... MAGNOLIA 45 5/30/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 11.60 HARDTACK I............... TOBACCO 46 5/31/58 Bikini................... Barge.................... 92.00 HARDTACK I............... SYCAMORE 47 6/2/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 15.00 HARDTACK I............... ROSE 48 6/8/58 Enewetak................. Undrwtr.................. 8.00 HARDTACK I............... UMBRELLA 49 6/10/58 Bikini................... Barge.................... 213.00 HARDTACK I............... MAPLE 50 6/14/58 Bikini................... Barge.................... 319.00 HARDTACK I............... ASPEN 51 6/14/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 1,450.00 HARDTACK I............... WALNUT 52 6/18/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 11.00 HARDTACK I............... LINDEN 53 6/27/58 Bikini................... Barge.................... 412.00 HARDTACK I............... REDWOOD 54 6/27/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 880.00 HARDTACK I............... ELDER 55 6/28/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 8,900.00 HARDTACK I............... OAK 56 6/29/58 Bikini................... Barge.................... 14.00 HARDTACK I............... HICKORY 57 7/1/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 5.20 HARDTACK I............... SEQUOIA 58 7/2/58 Bikini................... Barge.................... 220.000 HARDTACK I............... CEDAR 59 7/5/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 397.00 HARDTACK I............... DOGWOOD 60 7/12/58 Bikini................... Barge.................... 9,300.00 HARDTACK I............... POPLAR 61 7/14/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... LOW HARDTACK I............... SCAEVOLA 62 7/1/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 255.00 HARDTACK I............... PISONIA 63 7/22/58 Bikini................... Barge.................... 65.00 HARDTACK I............... JUNIPER 64 7/22/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 202.00 HARDTACK I............... OLIVE 65 7/26/58 Enewetak................. Barge.................... 2,000.00 HARDTACK I............... PINE 66 8/6/58 Enewetak................. Surface.................. FIZZ HARDTACK I............... QUINCE 67 8/18/58 Enewetak................. Surface.................. 0.02 HARDTACK I............... FIG -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, United States Nuclear Tests: July 1945 through September 1992. Document No. DOE/NV-209 (Rev. 14), December 1994. RMI Nuclear Claims Tribunal. Annual Report to the Nitijela For the Calendar Year 1996. Majuro: 1997. [[Page H3065]] TABLE I.--CUMULATIVE DOSES BY EVENT AND LOCATION (Finite Dose to Next Event)--mr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EVENT BRAVO ROMEO KOON UNION YANKEE NECTAR TOTAL Days between events 26 11 19 9 9 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AERIAL MONITORING Lae.......................... 5.5 12 12 7.5 78 95 125 Ujae......................... 6 32 17 9.5 48 1.4 114 Wotho........................ 250 270 110 55 95 4 784 Ailinginae................... \1\ 60,000 3,400 3,300 8 600 70 67,000 Rongelap..................... \1\ 180,000 11,000 6,000 3,400 1,700 300 202,000 Rongerik..................... \1\ 190,000 9,000 5,000 550 1,400 280 206,000 Taongi....................... 280 60 9.5 10 10 ................ 370 Bikar........................ \1\ 60,000 3,000 1,200 650 1,700 150 67,000 Utirik....................... \1\ 22,000 1,200 700 100 330 50 24,000 Taka......................... \1\ 15,000 800 1,000 120 380 50 17,000 Ailuk........................ 5,000 410 110 100 500 20 6,140 Jemo......................... 1,200 410 130 18 200 20 1,978 Likiep....................... 1,700 170 80 30 200 16 2,196 Namu......................... 1.8 90 100 0 25 0 216 Ailinglapalap................ 7.2 140 100 8 0 0 255 Namorik...................... 20 160 70 2 0 0 252 Ebon......................... 20 250 50 8 25 0 353 Kili......................... 20 200 70 0 0 1.3 291 Jaluit....................... 20 300 70 8 0 2.6 401 Mili......................... 60 160 200 20 0 1.3 441 Arno......................... 60 200 300 8 25 1.3 594 Majuro....................... 200 200 50 20 0 1.3 471 Aur.......................... 40 200 50 8 40 2.6 341 Maledlap..................... 350 120 50 0 25 4.0 549 Erilaib...................... 390 200 50 0 0 6.5 647 Wotje........................ 1,800 300 200 13 220 10 2,543 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- \1\ Based on arrival estimated from Rongerik data.
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